Nigeria has recorded a third successive quarter of negative economic growth. The recession, together with the profound structural challenges posed by the dependence of the economy on oil, calls for a serious political response.
President Muhammadu Buhari must respond with decisive action and a clear vision that will restore confidence in the economy. This will require a reappraisal of the role of the state. The government should be an enabler of growth and development, not an impediment. As the experience of other emerging markets shows, economic success does not happen without independent institutions.
Few things have been as damaging as a series of questionable foreign exchange policies adopted by the central bank. In response to sharply declining dollar revenues from oil that have depleted the country’s external reserves, the bank first maintained an artificial exchange rate and refused to further devalue the naira for 16 months. This was in addition to the bank’s ban on access to the foreign exchange market for importers of a range of items, from cement to toothpicks.
A growing black market for hard currency and sharply reduced output by manufacturers unable to import raw materials quickly followed. After much criticism, the central bank announced in June that it would explore a flotation of the naira. It has turned out to be anything but. The secret police have entered the foreign exchange market, arresting currency dealers who sell at rates above profit benchmarks set by the central bank.
These policies appear to have been motivated by a perceived imperative to maintain an “affordable” exchange rate because devaluation would hurt the poor. By contrast, the central banks of South Africa and Egypt, the largest African economies after Nigeria, have responded better to economic stress. The former has allowed the rand to find its market value. Egypt followed with a devaluation of the Egyptian pound in November, a $12bn bailout from the International Monetary Fund and a commitment to macroeconomic reforms.